That’s an excellent analysis, Finn! It undoubtedly proves my thesis that more frequent posting is linked to more revenue. It might not be the only one factor, but there’s a clear pattern. And thank you so so much for referring to my research!! Means a lot!
I'm sure other things matter, too. If I had started writing U.S. politics in a historical context, I could not have replicated Heather Cox Richardson's results - she is the real expert in her field, which is why people like to read her stuff.
However, I'm confident that posting frequency drives engagement and revenues. We could set a statistical hypothesis and calculate the correlation and statistical significance. Perhaps another day...I need to take my dog out now.
What I'd love to see more of is the analysis that cuts right through 'survivor bias'. For all the succesful "Heather's" and her 2+ million words and big revenues - how many Heathers have posted 2-5x per week and fizzled out? What's the attrition rate on Substack?
Alas, the fizzle and drop-out rates are not nearly as exciting to write about. :)
Wow, that's a tough one. Calculating attrition rate would require a whole new level of data acquisition, pulling consistently datasets and storing time series of drop-out rates by different dimensions. It would be an interesting project for sure 😄. Not sure how Substack product/engineering folks would react, though. Right now I'm using public APIs but they could change those any day, blocking some metrics.
It is not as important to consider frequency, as it is with true value. Providing real, actionable advice, tips, information = true value. If you give just one tip and that would undeniably bring results to anyone who impliments the info in their life, they would trust your content and eventually become a loyal follower of your authentic content... for life.
Well the thing is, if I were making hundreds of thousands from the newsletter I could do 4 stories per week too? I think it’s a bit misleading to just look at the rate… I think more successful writers - regardless of how they get there - are likely to start posting more as this becomes a significant source of income and thus makes it worth the extra time spent on crafting good stories
Thanks for the advice. I’ve moved from one post twice a month to one a week. Now I’m trying to consistently publish 2x weekly—harder during the holidays, but… Next up is audio posts and 3x weekly for 2025. I doubt I’ll get beyond that consistently, though, but it sounds like a worthy goal.
Every Substack page is rendered using one or more APIs. Some are open (public) and don't require authentication, while others require logging in. Because the data is already public, no special requests are needed. I use those public APIs to pull data and organize it in new, exciting ways to analyze, visualize, and produce new insights.
This is time-consuming and requires a lot of thinking and problem-solving, but that is what I love to do. Thank you for subscribing, Larry!
man, you never sleep! Another beautiful analysis. I might see a tiny methodical error though. You grouped the blogs as they are now, but that's not how they were when they were gaining audience. To see more precisely what drove the growth, you could track their performance along the time axis and check how the frequency of publications correlated with a certain growth rate. But that's definitely much more work, and who knows, it may yield quite similar results. Now, taking an assumption (not necessarily correct but reasonable) that the behavior of all the authors over time averages out, the conclusions you presented are correct.
It would be cool to collect this data regularly and build a dynamic leaderboard that shows the rate at which different writers are gaining an audience and moving to the next bestseller tier.
Since I have the timestamps of the historical posts, I could plot the publishing frequency as it changes over time. One of the Grafana panels actually shows this detail. Some writers are really consistent year over year, while others have spurts of posting and then slow down.
A beautiful, data based article. Recommend to everyone who's asking about the best street to go the extra mile. Wonderful motivational. It works, I'm writing my next post... :-)
That’s an excellent analysis, Finn! It undoubtedly proves my thesis that more frequent posting is linked to more revenue. It might not be the only one factor, but there’s a clear pattern. And thank you so so much for referring to my research!! Means a lot!
Thank you, Yana!
Your original work was the inspiration for this project.
Thank you so so much!!
I 110% agree. we consume so much. At my news outlet, I get pissed it doesn't refresh faster
These are interesting numbers, thanks for sharing! ❤
Do you really think post frequency drives revenue, or could it just as well be the other way around?
I'm sure other things matter, too. If I had started writing U.S. politics in a historical context, I could not have replicated Heather Cox Richardson's results - she is the real expert in her field, which is why people like to read her stuff.
However, I'm confident that posting frequency drives engagement and revenues. We could set a statistical hypothesis and calculate the correlation and statistical significance. Perhaps another day...I need to take my dog out now.
Solid analysis!
What I'd love to see more of is the analysis that cuts right through 'survivor bias'. For all the succesful "Heather's" and her 2+ million words and big revenues - how many Heathers have posted 2-5x per week and fizzled out? What's the attrition rate on Substack?
Alas, the fizzle and drop-out rates are not nearly as exciting to write about. :)
Appreciate the work here.
Wow, that's a tough one. Calculating attrition rate would require a whole new level of data acquisition, pulling consistently datasets and storing time series of drop-out rates by different dimensions. It would be an interesting project for sure 😄. Not sure how Substack product/engineering folks would react, though. Right now I'm using public APIs but they could change those any day, blocking some metrics.
Yup, especially anything that could put the $100 million or so venture capital at risk that is backing it. ;)
Good point!
It is not as important to consider frequency, as it is with true value. Providing real, actionable advice, tips, information = true value. If you give just one tip and that would undeniably bring results to anyone who impliments the info in their life, they would trust your content and eventually become a loyal follower of your authentic content... for life.
agreed
This is such an interesting statistic.
I've studied several Substack publications and found that newsletters with the most subscribers publish very frequently.
But also value is more important now, especially with AI tools.
Well the thing is, if I were making hundreds of thousands from the newsletter I could do 4 stories per week too? I think it’s a bit misleading to just look at the rate… I think more successful writers - regardless of how they get there - are likely to start posting more as this becomes a significant source of income and thus makes it worth the extra time spent on crafting good stories
Thanks for the advice. I’ve moved from one post twice a month to one a week. Now I’m trying to consistently publish 2x weekly—harder during the holidays, but… Next up is audio posts and 3x weekly for 2025. I doubt I’ll get beyond that consistently, though, but it sounds like a worthy goal.
Thanks Finn and Yana for the inspiration.
I didn’t realize there was an API. Did you have to make a special request?
This was such and interesting and thorough analysis.much appreciation!
Every Substack page is rendered using one or more APIs. Some are open (public) and don't require authentication, while others require logging in. Because the data is already public, no special requests are needed. I use those public APIs to pull data and organize it in new, exciting ways to analyze, visualize, and produce new insights.
This is time-consuming and requires a lot of thinking and problem-solving, but that is what I love to do. Thank you for subscribing, Larry!
Very insightful. Thank you, Yana.
man, you never sleep! Another beautiful analysis. I might see a tiny methodical error though. You grouped the blogs as they are now, but that's not how they were when they were gaining audience. To see more precisely what drove the growth, you could track their performance along the time axis and check how the frequency of publications correlated with a certain growth rate. But that's definitely much more work, and who knows, it may yield quite similar results. Now, taking an assumption (not necessarily correct but reasonable) that the behavior of all the authors over time averages out, the conclusions you presented are correct.
It would be cool to collect this data regularly and build a dynamic leaderboard that shows the rate at which different writers are gaining an audience and moving to the next bestseller tier.
Since I have the timestamps of the historical posts, I could plot the publishing frequency as it changes over time. One of the Grafana panels actually shows this detail. Some writers are really consistent year over year, while others have spurts of posting and then slow down.
I wrote a series of articles on Medium - looking at top authors and how they progressed over the years; see https://medium.com/@FinnTropy/list/top-authors-dashboard-13eac417cb24
A beautiful, data based article. Recommend to everyone who's asking about the best street to go the extra mile. Wonderful motivational. It works, I'm writing my next post... :-)
Thank you. As the data tells us, you are on your path to 10X outcomes.
😎🤣
FELICES Y GRACIAS CON QUE FRECUENCIA,,,,,, Y HOW OFTEN SHOULD YOU WRITE
Amazing research, amazing presentation, thank you!
Thanks Cameron, I love working with data and building tools.
Very interesting information, Finn! I've heard both sides of the coin. "Post less frequently. No one wants to hear from you every day."
"Post every day. That's how you make more money."
The only thing we can do is test it out for ourselves and see what happens!
In a short experiment I have been running, posting notes multiple times per day has increased my engagement metrics by 30X.
I built a tool for Scheduled Notes as I cannot be on computer all day long, 😂
You are so smart! A tool like that is very needed!
Wow! Excellent work 👏👏👏 Now, 10 posts per week seems an insane amount. I’m sure she had help with that.
Great analysis man.
Love the quote and picture also.
FINN SIGHTS FELICES Y GRACIAS